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Northern Oil and Gas NOG 22.14 -0.13 -0.58%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $22.36
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings ±5.5% ±$1.22 $21.14 – $23.58 $20.83 – $23.89 $19.70 – $25.02
2 sessions Earnings ±6.1% ±$1.36 $21.00 – $23.72 $20.67 – $24.05 $19.41 – $25.31
3 sessions Earnings ±6.7% ±$1.49 $20.87 – $23.85 $20.52 – $24.20 $19.16 – $25.56
1 week Earnings ±7.4% ±$1.66 $20.70 – $24.02 $20.30 – $24.42 $18.88 – $25.84
2 weeks Earnings ±8.8% ±$1.98 $20.38 – $24.34 $19.92 – $24.80 $18.19 – $26.53
3 weeks Earnings ±10.0% ±$2.24 $20.12 – $24.60 $19.59 – $25.13 $17.66 – $27.06
1 month Earnings ±11.2% ±$2.51 $19.85 – $24.87 $19.25 – $25.47 $17.08 – $27.64
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. NOG reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.37%
Average actual move
0.06%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 1
Median IV change
-4.21%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
February 20, 2025 ±5.37% -0.06% 0.01× 38.3% → 33.0%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →