MLTX Moves

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics Class A Ordinary MLTX 11.53 0.73 6.76%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $11.53

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±4.9% ±$0.57	$10.96 – $12.10	$10.85 – $12.21	$10.31 – $12.75
2 sessions	±6.9% ±$0.79	$10.74 – $12.32	$10.57 – $12.49	$9.82 – $13.24
3 sessions	±8.6% ±$1.00	$10.53 – $12.53	$10.34 – $12.72	$9.41 – $13.65
1 week	±11.0% ±$1.27	$10.26 – $12.80	$9.98 – $13.08	$8.83 – $14.23
2 weeks	±15.4% ±$1.78	$9.75 – $13.31	$9.33 – $13.73	$7.74 – $15.32
3 weeks	±19.1% ±$2.20	$9.33 – $13.73	$8.79 – $14.27	$6.88 – $16.18
1 month	±22.7% ±$2.62	$8.91 – $14.15	$8.26 – $14.80	$5.97 – $17.09

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±9.05%

Average actual move

0.17%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 05, 2025	±9.05%	+0.17%	0.02×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →