MGA Moves

Magna International MGA 62.81 -2.82 -4.3%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $62.81

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.6% ±$1.04	$61.77 – $63.85	$61.56 – $64.06	$60.58 – $65.04
2 sessions	±2.3% ±$1.44	$61.37 – $64.25	$61.06 – $64.56	$59.69 – $65.93
3 sessions	±2.9% ±$1.82	$60.99 – $64.63	$60.64 – $64.98	$58.93 – $66.69
1 week	±3.7% ±$2.31	$60.50 – $65.12	$59.98 – $65.64	$57.88 – $67.74
2 weeks	±5.2% ±$3.25	$59.56 – $66.06	$58.80 – $66.82	$55.88 – $69.74
3 weeks	±6.3% ±$3.96	$58.85 – $66.77	$57.89 – $67.73	$54.45 – $71.17
1 month	±7.4% ±$4.65	$58.16 – $67.46	$57.01 – $68.61	$52.95 – $72.67

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.93%

Average actual move

4.59%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Median IV change

-25.31%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
February 14, 2025	±6.93%	-4.59%	0.66×	58.2% → 34.5%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →