MCB Moves

Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp MCB 95.08 -2.6 -2.66%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $95.01

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.2% ±$1.18	$93.83 – $96.19	$93.59 – $96.43	$92.48 – $97.54
2 sessions	±1.7% ±$1.63	$93.38 – $96.64	$93.02 – $97.00	$91.49 – $98.53
3 sessions	±2.2% ±$2.06	$92.95 – $97.07	$92.55 – $97.47	$90.62 – $99.40
1 week	±2.8% ±$2.62	$92.39 – $97.63	$91.81 – $98.21	$89.43 – $100.59
2 weeks	±3.9% ±$3.68	$91.33 – $98.69	$90.47 – $99.55	$87.17 – $102.85
3 weeks	±4.8% ±$4.55	$90.46 – $99.56	$89.36 – $100.66	$85.39 – $104.63
1 month	±5.7% ±$5.42	$89.59 – $100.43	$88.25 – $101.77	$83.51 – $106.51

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.26%

Average actual move

2.15%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
July 18, 2025	±6.26%	+2.15%	0.34×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →