IEP Moves

Icahn Enterprises L IEP 5.13 -0.21 -3.93%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $5.18

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±3.1% ±$0.17	$5.02 – $5.35	$4.99 – $5.38	$4.84 – $5.53
2 sessions	±4.4% ±$0.23	$4.96 – $5.41	$4.91 – $5.46	$4.70 – $5.67
3 sessions	±5.5% ±$0.29	$4.90 – $5.47	$4.84 – $5.53	$4.58 – $5.79
1 week	±7.0% ±$0.37	$4.82 – $5.55	$4.74 – $5.63	$4.41 – $5.96
2 weeks	±9.8% ±$0.51	$4.68 – $5.69	$4.56 – $5.81	$4.10 – $6.27
3 weeks	±11.1% ±$0.58	$4.61 – $5.76	$4.47 – $5.90	$3.97 – $6.40
1 month	±12.2% ±$0.64	$4.55 – $5.82	$4.40 – $5.97	$3.84 – $6.53

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±7.80%

Average actual move

2.24%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
February 26, 2025	±7.80%	-2.24%	0.29×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →