IDR Moves

Idaho Strategic Resources IDR 20.85 1.28 6.54%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $20.86

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.7% ±$0.57	$20.29 – $21.42	$20.18 – $21.53	$19.64 – $22.07
2 sessions	±3.8% ±$0.79	$20.07 – $21.64	$19.90 – $21.81	$19.16 – $22.55
3 sessions	±4.8% ±$1.00	$19.86 – $21.85	$19.67 – $22.04	$18.75 – $22.96
1 week	±6.0% ±$1.25	$19.60 – $22.11	$19.32 – $22.39	$18.17 – $23.54
2 weeks Earnings	±13.2% ±$2.77	$18.09 – $23.62	$17.44 – $24.27	$15.03 – $26.68
3 weeks Earnings	±14.7% ±$3.05	$17.80 – $23.91	$17.07 – $24.64	$14.43 – $27.28
1 month Earnings	±16.1% ±$3.36	$17.49 – $24.22	$16.68 – $25.03	$13.78 – $27.93

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. IDR reports in 7 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±11.05%

Average actual move

12.79%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 2

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 13, 2026	±10.08%	-8.87%	0.88×	—
August 07, 2025	±12.03%	+16.71%	1.39×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →