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HSBC Holdings PLC HSBC 88.06 -1.31 -1.47%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $88.01
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.4% ±$1.19 $86.81 – $89.20 $86.57 – $89.44 $85.45 – $90.57
2 sessions ±1.9% ±$1.66 $86.34 – $89.67 $85.99 – $90.02 $84.42 – $91.59
3 sessions ±2.4% ±$2.09 $85.91 – $90.10 $85.51 – $90.51 $83.54 – $92.47
1 week ±3.0% ±$2.65 $85.35 – $90.66 $84.75 – $91.26 $82.34 – $93.67
2 weeks ±4.0% ±$3.54 $84.46 – $91.55 $83.61 – $92.40 $80.44 – $95.57
3 weeks ±4.9% ±$4.31 $83.69 – $92.32 $82.65 – $93.37 $78.89 – $97.12
1 month ±5.8% ±$5.09 $82.91 – $93.10 $81.64 – $94.37 $77.21 – $98.80
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±4.09%
Average actual move
3.61%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 7
Median IV change
-5.18%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 27, 2026 ±4.50% -5.70% 1.27× —
August 04, 2026 ±4.03% -1.69% 0.42× —
May 05, 2026 ±4.08% -3.03% 0.74× —
February 25, 2026 ±4.18% +7.19% 1.72× —
July 30, 2025 ±3.69% -5.50% 1.49× —
April 29, 2025 ±4.04% +2.01% 0.50× 30.4% → 28.8%
February 19, 2025 ±4.13% +0.14% 0.03× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →