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Hallador Energy Company HNRG 9.36 -0.25 -2.6%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $9.29
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.2% ±$0.30 $8.99 – $9.59 $8.93 – $9.65 $8.65 – $9.93
2 sessions ±4.5% ±$0.41 $8.88 – $9.70 $8.79 – $9.79 $8.40 – $10.18
3 sessions Earnings ±11.5% ±$1.07 $8.22 – $10.36 $7.97 – $10.60 $7.00 – $11.58
1 week Earnings ±12.6% ±$1.17 $8.12 – $10.46 $7.83 – $10.74 $6.83 – $11.75
2 weeks Earnings ±14.7% ±$1.37 $7.92 – $10.66 $7.60 – $10.98 $6.40 – $12.17
3 weeks Earnings ±16.5% ±$1.53 $7.76 – $10.82 $7.39 – $11.19 $6.07 – $12.51
1 month Earnings ±18.3% ±$1.70 $7.58 – $10.99 $7.17 – $11.40 $5.71 – $12.87
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. HNRG reports in 3 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±14.52%
Average actual move
10.81%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 3
Median IV change
-13.54%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 12, 2025 ±15.04% -6.93% 0.46× —
May 13, 2025 ±12.84% +21.40% 1.67× —
March 18, 2025 ±15.68% +4.09% 0.26× 104.7% → 90.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →