FSM Moves

Fortuna Mining Corp FSM 9.62 0.14 1.48%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $9.62

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.7% ±$0.26	$9.36 – $9.88	$9.31 – $9.93	$9.07 – $10.17
2 sessions	±3.7% ±$0.36	$9.26 – $9.98	$9.19 – $10.05	$8.85 – $10.39
3 sessions	±4.7% ±$0.45	$9.17 – $10.07	$9.08 – $10.16	$8.66 – $10.58
1 week	±5.9% ±$0.57	$9.05 – $10.19	$8.92 – $10.32	$8.40 – $10.84
2 weeks	±8.3% ±$0.80	$8.82 – $10.42	$8.63 – $10.61	$7.91 – $11.33
3 weeks	±9.6% ±$0.93	$8.69 – $10.55	$8.47 – $10.77	$7.66 – $11.58
1 month	±11.0% ±$1.06	$8.56 – $10.68	$8.30 – $10.94	$7.38 – $11.86

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±9.12%

Average actual move

5.35%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 2

Median IV change

-22.85%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026	±9.15%	+6.30%	0.69×	—
February 19, 2026	±9.10%	+4.41%	0.48×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →