FITB Moves

Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 53.87 -0.57 -1.05%

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Expected move

October 30, 2026 close · $53.87

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.1% ±$0.59	$53.28 – $54.46	$53.16 – $54.58	$52.60 – $55.14
2 sessions	±1.5% ±$0.82	$53.05 – $54.69	$52.87 – $54.87	$52.09 – $55.65
3 sessions	±1.9% ±$1.04	$52.83 – $54.91	$52.63 – $55.11	$51.66 – $56.08
1 week	±2.5% ±$1.32	$52.55 – $55.19	$52.25 – $55.49	$51.06 – $56.68
2 weeks	±3.4% ±$1.85	$52.02 – $55.72	$51.58 – $56.16	$49.92 – $57.82
3 weeks	±4.3% ±$2.29	$51.58 – $56.16	$51.01 – $56.73	$49.02 – $58.72
1 month	±5.0% ±$2.67	$51.20 – $56.54	$50.53 – $57.21	$48.20 – $59.54

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±3.63%

Average actual move

1.35%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 3

Median IV change

-13.16%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
July 17, 2026	±3.66%	-2.29%	0.63×	—
July 17, 2025	±3.31%	-1.02%	0.31×	26.0% → 21.8%
April 17, 2025	±3.92%	-0.73%	0.19×	41.4% → 34.6%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →