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Trump Media & Technology Group DJT 4.02 -0.47 -10.47%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $4.02
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings ±11.1% ±$0.45 $3.57 – $4.47 $3.46 – $4.58 $3.05 – $4.99
2 sessions Earnings ±12.4% ±$0.50 $3.52 – $4.52 $3.40 – $4.64 $2.94 – $5.10
3 sessions Earnings ±13.6% ±$0.55 $3.47 – $4.57 $3.35 – $4.69 $2.85 – $5.19
1 week Earnings ±15.1% ±$0.61 $3.41 – $4.63 $3.27 – $4.77 $2.75 – $5.29
2 weeks Earnings ±18.0% ±$0.72 $3.30 – $4.74 $3.13 – $4.91 $2.50 – $5.54
3 weeks Earnings ±20.4% ±$0.82 $3.20 – $4.84 $3.01 – $5.03 $2.30 – $5.74
1 month Earnings ±22.9% ±$0.92 $3.10 – $4.94 $2.88 – $5.16 $2.09 – $5.95
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. DJT reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±16.07%
Average actual move
3.80%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 6
Median IV change
+0.72%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 11, 2026 ±8.95% -5.11% 0.57× —
March 02, 2026 ±10.32% +3.45% 0.33× —
August 04, 2025 ±6.12% -0.18% 0.03× 54.8% → 53.1%
May 12, 2025 ±7.93% +3.05% 0.38× 73.0% → 76.3%
November 06, 2024 ±53.26% +5.94% 0.11× 391.2% → 197.5%
August 12, 2024 ±9.86% -5.07% 0.51× 96.0% → 120.0%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →