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Copa Holdings CPA 128.92 -2.34 -1.78%

Previous-day view · Fri Oct 30 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

October 30, 2026 close · $128.92
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.4% ±$1.84 $127.08 – $130.76 $126.70 – $131.14 $124.96 – $132.88
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$2.57 $126.35 – $131.49 $125.81 – $132.03 $123.39 – $134.45
3 sessions ±2.5% ±$3.24 $125.68 – $132.16 $125.07 – $132.77 $122.04 – $135.80
1 week ±3.2% ±$4.11 $124.81 – $133.03 $123.89 – $133.95 $120.17 – $137.67
2 weeks ±4.5% ±$5.76 $123.16 – $134.68 $121.79 – $136.05 $116.62 – $141.22
3 weeks Earnings ±9.2% ±$11.83 $117.09 – $140.75 $114.27 – $143.57 $104.05 – $153.79
1 month Earnings ±9.8% ±$12.67 $116.25 – $141.59 $113.19 – $144.65 $102.27 – $155.57
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. CPA reports in 14 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±6.68%
Average actual move
6.27%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 5
Median IV change
-37.49%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 14, 2026 ±6.31% +17.92% 2.84× —
February 12, 2026 ±6.54% -0.09% 0.01× —
August 07, 2025 ±6.38% +3.74% 0.59× —
May 08, 2025 ±6.47% +4.18% 0.65× —
August 08, 2024 ±7.68% +5.42% 0.71× 58.8% → 36.8%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →