Closed
⌘K
Sign in Sign up

Cummins Inc CMI 448.58 -23.26 -4.93%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $447.79
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.1% ±$9.63 $438.17 – $457.42 $436.24 – $459.35 $427.15 – $468.44
2 sessions ±3.0% ±$13.39 $434.40 – $461.18 $431.58 – $464.00 $418.96 – $476.63
3 sessions ±3.8% ±$16.84 $430.96 – $464.63 $427.69 – $467.90 $411.93 – $483.66
1 week ±4.8% ±$21.41 $426.39 – $469.20 $421.60 – $473.99 $402.16 – $493.42
2 weeks ±6.7% ±$30.05 $417.75 – $477.84 $410.63 – $484.96 $383.71 – $511.87
3 weeks ±7.9% ±$35.42 $412.37 – $483.21 $403.78 – $491.81 $372.97 – $522.62
1 month ±9.0% ±$40.39 $407.40 – $488.18 $397.33 – $498.26 $362.13 – $533.46
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±6.54%
Average actual move
2.27%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 3
Median IV change
-20.43%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 05, 2026 ±7.54% +2.76% 0.37× —
August 05, 2025 ±5.23% +3.22% 0.62× 37.6% → 30.4%
May 05, 2025 ±6.87% +0.82% 0.12× 43.7% → 32.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →