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Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG 35.2 1.94 5.83%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $35.19
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.6% ±$0.56 $34.62 – $35.75 $34.50 – $35.87 $33.97 – $36.40
2 sessions ±2.2% ±$0.78 $34.40 – $35.97 $34.23 – $36.14 $33.49 – $36.88
3 sessions ±2.9% ±$1.02 $34.17 – $36.20 $33.97 – $36.40 $33.02 – $37.35
1 week ±3.7% ±$1.31 $33.87 – $36.50 $33.58 – $36.79 $32.39 – $37.98
2 weeks ±5.1% ±$1.80 $33.38 – $36.99 $32.95 – $37.42 $31.32 – $39.05
3 weeks ±6.2% ±$2.17 $33.01 – $37.36 $32.49 – $37.88 $30.60 – $39.77
1 month ±7.3% ±$2.55 $32.63 – $37.74 $31.99 – $38.38 $29.76 – $40.61
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.30%
Average actual move
6.26%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 7
Median IV change
-38.43%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 29, 2026 ±7.99% +8.88% 1.11× 59.1% → 39.4%
July 30, 2026 ±7.83% +12.50% 1.60× —
April 30, 2026 ±10.28% +3.03% 0.29× —
February 04, 2026 ±9.51% +1.94% 0.20× —
July 24, 2025 ±6.56% -13.34% 2.03× —
April 24, 2025 ±8.04% +1.60% 0.20× 58.5% → 36.0%
February 05, 2025 ±7.91% -2.56% 0.32× 52.6% → 26.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →