CG Moves

The Carlyle Group Inc CG 39.7 -0.26 -0.65%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $39.67

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.0% ±$0.81	$38.86 – $40.48	$38.69 – $40.65	$37.93 – $41.41
2 sessions	±2.9% ±$1.13	$38.54 – $40.80	$38.30 – $41.04	$37.23 – $42.11
3 sessions	±3.6% ±$1.42	$38.25 – $41.09	$37.97 – $41.37	$36.64 – $42.70
1 week	±4.6% ±$1.81	$37.86 – $41.48	$37.46 – $41.88	$35.82 – $43.52
2 weeks	±6.4% ±$2.53	$37.14 – $42.20	$36.53 – $42.81	$34.26 – $45.08
3 weeks	±7.7% ±$3.07	$36.60 – $42.74	$35.86 – $43.48	$33.19 – $46.15
1 month	±9.1% ±$3.60	$36.07 – $43.27	$35.18 – $44.16	$32.03 – $47.31

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±7.59%

Average actual move

3.79%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 4

Median IV change

-23.75%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026	±8.37%	-3.52%	0.42×	—
August 06, 2025	±7.99%	+4.66%	0.58×	—
May 08, 2025	±7.51%	+3.28%	0.44×	59.8% → 44.4%
February 11, 2025	±6.51%	-3.69%	0.57×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →