CENX Moves

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Century Aluminum Co CENX 36.71 0.29 0.8%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 11 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 11, 2026 close · $36.74

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.7% ±$0.98	$35.76 – $37.72	$35.57 – $37.91	$34.65 – $38.83
2 sessions	±3.7% ±$1.36	$35.38 – $38.10	$35.09 – $38.39	$33.81 – $39.67
3 sessions	±4.7% ±$1.71	$35.03 – $38.45	$34.70 – $38.78	$33.10 – $40.38
1 week	±5.9% ±$2.18	$34.56 – $38.92	$34.08 – $39.40	$32.11 – $41.37
2 weeks	±8.3% ±$3.05	$33.69 – $39.79	$32.97 – $40.51	$30.23 – $43.25
3 weeks	±10.3% ±$3.78	$32.96 – $40.52	$32.04 – $41.44	$28.76 – $44.72
1 month	±12.2% ±$4.50	$32.24 – $41.24	$31.12 – $42.36	$27.20 – $46.28

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±11.76%

Average actual move

4.91%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 4

Median IV change

-25.39%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 08, 2026	±11.64%	-2.76%	0.24×	—
August 08, 2025	±12.70%	+1.63%	0.13×	105.9% → 68.8%
May 08, 2025	±12.96%	-1.96%	0.15×	102.3% → 76.3%
February 21, 2025	±9.73%	-13.27%	1.36×	80.2% → 74.6%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →