ARIS Moves

Aris Mining Corporation ARIS 15.28 -0.44 -2.8%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $15.28

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.7% ±$0.41	$14.87 – $15.69	$14.79 – $15.77	$14.40 – $16.16
2 sessions	±3.7% ±$0.57	$14.71 – $15.85	$14.59 – $15.97	$14.05 – $16.51
3 sessions	±4.7% ±$0.72	$14.56 – $16.00	$14.42 – $16.14	$13.75 – $16.81
1 week	±6.0% ±$0.92	$14.36 – $16.20	$14.16 – $16.40	$13.33 – $17.23
2 weeks	±8.4% ±$1.29	$13.99 – $16.57	$13.69 – $16.87	$12.54 – $18.02
3 weeks	±10.4% ±$1.59	$13.69 – $16.87	$13.30 – $17.26	$11.92 – $18.64
1 month	±12.4% ±$1.89	$13.39 – $17.17	$12.91 – $17.65	$11.26 – $19.30

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±10.42%

Average actual move

8.50%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 3

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
March 12, 2026	±11.54%	-2.28%	0.20×	—
August 12, 2025	±5.46%	+1.67%	0.31×	—
May 07, 2025	±14.24%	-21.53%	1.51×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →