ARDX Moves

Ardelyx ARDX 3.03 0.0 0.0%

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Expected move

November 03, 2026 close · $3.03

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±4.1% ±$0.13	$2.91 – $3.16	$2.88 – $3.18	$2.76 – $3.30
2 sessions	±5.7% ±$0.17	$2.86 – $3.20	$2.82 – $3.24	$2.66 – $3.41
3 sessions	±7.2% ±$0.22	$2.81 – $3.25	$2.77 – $3.29	$2.56 – $3.50
1 week	±9.2% ±$0.28	$2.75 – $3.31	$2.69 – $3.37	$2.44 – $3.62
2 weeks	±12.9% ±$0.39	$2.64 – $3.42	$2.55 – $3.51	$2.20 – $3.86

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. ARDX reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±14.09%

Average actual move

14.99%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
February 20, 2026	±14.09%	-14.99%	1.06×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →