APA Moves

APA Corporation Common Stock APA 43.48 -1.01 -2.27%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $43.44

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.6% ±$1.12	$42.32 – $44.56	$42.09 – $44.78	$41.04 – $45.84
2 sessions	±3.6% ±$1.56	$41.88 – $45.00	$41.55 – $45.33	$40.08 – $46.80
3 sessions	±4.5% ±$1.96	$41.47 – $45.40	$41.10 – $45.78	$39.26 – $47.62
1 week	±5.7% ±$2.49	$40.94 – $45.93	$40.39 – $46.49	$38.13 – $48.75
2 weeks	±7.6% ±$3.30	$40.13 – $46.74	$39.35 – $47.53	$36.38 – $50.49
3 weeks	±8.7% ±$3.79	$39.65 – $47.23	$38.73 – $48.15	$35.43 – $51.44
1 month	±10.7% ±$4.64	$38.79 – $48.08	$37.64 – $49.24	$33.59 – $53.29

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±5.40%

Average actual move

5.42%

Beyond the implied move

3 / 6

Median IV change

-8.66%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
November 05, 2026	±5.26%	-2.27%	0.43×	55.1% → 56.0%
August 06, 2026	±5.05%	+5.40%	1.07×	—
May 07, 2026	±5.68%	-5.38%	0.95×	56.4% → 48.7%
August 07, 2025	±5.04%	+7.75%	1.54×	53.2% → 51.1%
May 08, 2025	±6.10%	+4.52%	0.74×	62.6% → 56.0%
February 27, 2025	±5.27%	-7.22%	1.37×	48.4% → 44.2%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →