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Applied Industrial Technologies AIT 280.9 -17.39 -5.83%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $281.99
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.5% ±$4.12 $277.87 – $286.10 $277.02 – $286.95 $273.13 – $290.84
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$5.75 $276.23 – $287.74 $275.02 – $288.95 $269.61 – $294.36
3 sessions ±2.6% ±$7.21 $274.77 – $289.20 $273.36 – $290.61 $266.59 – $297.38
1 week ±3.3% ±$9.19 $272.79 – $291.18 $270.73 – $293.24 $262.42 – $301.55
2 weeks ±4.6% ±$12.88 $269.10 – $294.87 $266.02 – $297.95 $254.46 – $309.51
3 weeks ±5.6% ±$15.70 $266.28 – $297.69 $262.44 – $301.53 $248.80 – $315.17
1 month ±6.5% ±$18.47 $263.51 – $300.46 $258.95 – $305.02 $242.85 – $321.12
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.30%
Average actual move
1.24%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 2
Median IV change
-22.68%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 13, 2026 ±5.25% +1.51% 0.29× —
August 14, 2025 ±5.35% -0.97% 0.18× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →