ADTN Moves

ADTRAN Holdings ADTN 4.04 -0.09 -2.18%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $4.04

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±3.0% ±$0.12	$3.92 – $4.16	$3.89 – $4.19	$3.78 – $4.30
2 sessions	±4.2% ±$0.17	$3.87 – $4.21	$3.84 – $4.24	$3.68 – $4.40
3 sessions	±5.3% ±$0.21	$3.83 – $4.25	$3.79 – $4.29	$3.59 – $4.49
1 week	±6.7% ±$0.27	$3.77 – $4.31	$3.71 – $4.37	$3.46 – $4.62
2 weeks	±9.4% ±$0.38	$3.66 – $4.42	$3.57 – $4.51	$3.23 – $4.85
3 weeks	±11.6% ±$0.47	$3.57 – $4.51	$3.46 – $4.62	$3.05 – $5.03
1 month	±13.8% ±$0.56	$3.48 – $4.60	$3.34 – $4.74	$2.85 – $5.23

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±12.94%

Average actual move

14.57%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Median IV change

-34.31%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 05, 2025	±12.94%	-14.57%	1.13×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →