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Adobe Inc ADBE 248.48 2.34 0.95%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $248.95
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.9% ±$4.66 $244.30 – $253.61 $243.35 – $254.56 $238.97 – $258.94
2 sessions ±2.6% ±$6.48 $242.48 – $255.43 $241.11 – $256.80 $234.99 – $262.92
3 sessions ±3.3% ±$8.17 $240.79 – $257.12 $239.22 – $258.69 $231.60 – $266.31
1 week ±4.2% ±$10.36 $238.60 – $259.31 $236.28 – $261.63 $226.87 – $271.04
2 weeks ±5.8% ±$14.54 $234.42 – $263.49 $230.95 – $266.95 $217.93 – $279.97
3 weeks ±7.2% ±$18.00 $230.95 – $266.95 $226.55 – $271.36 $210.89 – $287.02
1 month ±8.6% ±$21.46 $227.49 – $270.41 $222.17 – $275.74 $203.47 – $294.44
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. ADBE reports in 25 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.39%
Average actual move
6.99%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 7
Median IV change
-40.96%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
September 11, 2026 ±8.39% +1.37% 0.16× 65.7% → 40.5%
June 12, 2026 ±8.92% -6.76% 0.76× —
March 13, 2026 ±7.89% -7.58% 0.96× —
September 12, 2025 ±10.28% -0.34% 0.03× 73.3% → 33.1%
June 13, 2025 ±7.28% -5.32% 0.73× 52.5% → 29.7%
March 13, 2025 ±7.81% -13.85% 1.77× —
December 12, 2024 ±8.13% -13.69% 1.68× 54.3% → 44.2%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →