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Alcoa Corporation AA 38.42 -2.16 -5.32%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $38.29
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.2% ±$0.86 $37.43 – $39.15 $37.26 – $39.32 $36.45 – $40.13
2 sessions ±3.1% ±$1.19 $37.10 – $39.48 $36.85 – $39.73 $35.72 – $40.86
3 sessions ±3.9% ±$1.50 $36.79 – $39.79 $36.50 – $40.08 $35.09 – $41.49
1 week ±5.0% ±$1.91 $36.38 – $40.20 $35.96 – $40.62 $34.22 – $42.36
2 weeks ±7.2% ±$2.74 $35.55 – $41.03 $34.91 – $41.67 $32.45 – $44.13
3 weeks ±8.6% ±$3.30 $34.99 – $41.59 $34.18 – $42.40 $31.31 – $45.27
1 month ±10.2% ±$3.91 $34.38 – $42.20 $33.41 – $43.17 $30.00 – $46.58
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±6.39%
Average actual move
4.66%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 6
Median IV change
-20.80%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
July 17, 2026 ±6.15% -6.13% 1.00× 67.3% → 53.3%
April 17, 2026 ±6.63% -6.80% 1.03× —
January 23, 2026 ±6.44% -1.47% 0.23× —
July 17, 2025 ±5.86% +2.91% 0.50× 56.8% → 48.5%
April 17, 2025 ±6.66% -6.98% 1.05× —
January 23, 2025 ±6.58% -3.69% 0.56× 55.6% → 43.3%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →