V Moves

VISA Inc V 436.57 16.15 3.84%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $435.63

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.0% ±$4.53	$431.10 – $440.16	$430.18 – $441.08	$425.92 – $445.34
2 sessions	±1.5% ±$6.32	$429.31 – $441.95	$428.01 – $443.25	$422.04 – $449.22
3 sessions	±1.8% ±$7.88	$427.74 – $443.51	$426.22 – $445.04	$418.81 – $452.45
1 week	±2.3% ±$9.98	$425.65 – $445.61	$423.43 – $447.83	$414.37 – $456.89
2 weeks	±3.2% ±$14.03	$421.60 – $449.66	$418.25 – $453.01	$405.66 – $465.60
3 weeks	±4.0% ±$17.34	$418.29 – $452.97	$414.11 – $457.15	$399.04 – $472.22
1 month	±4.6% ±$20.00	$415.63 – $455.63	$410.71 – $460.55	$393.29 – $477.97

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±3.40%

Average actual move

1.97%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 7

Median IV change

-17.43%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
October 28, 2026	±3.21%	-0.31%	0.10×	25.5% → 20.2%
July 29, 2026	±3.63%	+0.58%	0.16×	28.9% → 23.9%
April 29, 2026	±3.58%	+8.26%	2.31×	—
January 30, 2026	±3.41%	-3.00%	0.88×	—
July 30, 2025	±3.19%	-0.11%	0.03×	25.3% → 21.4%
April 30, 2025	±3.77%	+1.17%	0.31×	29.9% → 24.7%
January 31, 2025	±3.00%	-0.36%	0.12×	25.4% → 17.2%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →