Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd TSM 395.75 -9.05 -2.24% Regime: Trend Down (95%)
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $394.43| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±1.9% ±$7.53 | $386.90 – $401.96 | $385.36 – $403.50 | $378.22 – $410.64 |
| 2 sessions | ±2.7% ±$10.49 | $383.94 – $404.92 | $381.69 – $407.17 | $371.79 – $417.07 |
| 3 sessions | ±3.2% ±$12.66 | $381.77 – $407.09 | $379.28 – $409.58 | $367.41 – $421.45 |
| 1 week | ±3.9% ±$15.54 | $378.89 – $409.97 | $375.42 – $413.44 | $361.30 – $427.56 |
| 2 weeks | ±5.5% ±$21.50 | $372.93 – $415.93 | $367.81 – $421.05 | $348.52 – $440.34 |
| 3 weeks | ±6.7% ±$26.23 | $368.20 – $420.66 | $361.85 – $427.01 | $339.05 – $449.81 |
| 1 month | ±7.7% ±$30.17 | $364.26 – $424.60 | $356.76 – $432.10 | $330.45 – $458.41 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±4.86%
Average actual move
2.43%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 6
Median IV change
-17.70%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15, 2026 | ±3.71% | -1.80% | 0.49× | 36.4% → 33.0% |
| July 16, 2026 | ±4.20% | -2.32% | 0.55× | 52.6% → 51.1% |
| April 16, 2026 | ±4.83% | -3.13% | 0.65× | — |
| July 17, 2025 | ±4.31% | +3.38% | 0.78× | 40.8% → 33.6% |
| April 17, 2025 | ±5.49% | +0.05% | 0.01× | 55.0% → 44.1% |
| January 16, 2025 | ±6.60% | +3.86% | 0.59× | 51.5% → 33.6% |