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The Travelers Companies TRV 409.25 13.84 3.5%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $409.25
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.0% ±$4.26 $404.99 – $413.51 $404.18 – $414.32 $400.16 – $418.34
2 sessions ±1.4% ±$5.89 $403.36 – $415.14 $402.09 – $416.41 $396.52 – $421.98
3 sessions ±1.8% ±$7.41 $401.84 – $416.66 $400.41 – $418.09 $393.45 – $425.05
1 week ±2.3% ±$9.45 $399.80 – $418.70 $397.71 – $420.79 $389.16 – $429.34
2 weeks ±3.2% ±$13.26 $395.99 – $422.51 $392.88 – $425.62 $381.01 – $437.49
3 weeks ±4.0% ±$16.33 $392.92 – $425.58 $388.95 – $429.55 $374.75 – $443.75
1 month ±4.7% ±$19.36 $389.89 – $428.61 $385.10 – $433.40 $368.20 – $450.30
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±3.83%
Average actual move
3.58%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 4
Median IV change
-21.27%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
July 17, 2026 ±2.87% +9.22% 3.21× —
April 16, 2026 ±3.76% -0.16% 0.04× 26.4% → 26.3%
July 17, 2025 ±3.92% +3.81% 0.97× 26.2% → 20.6%
April 16, 2025 ±4.79% +1.13% 0.24× 32.0% → 24.9%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →