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Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL 287.65 -44.35 -13.36%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $287.85
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings ±6.2% ±$17.96 $269.89 – $305.81 $265.34 – $310.36 $248.70 – $327.00
2 sessions Earnings ±6.9% ±$19.78 $268.08 – $307.63 $263.24 – $312.46 $245.02 – $330.68
3 sessions Earnings ±7.5% ±$21.45 $266.41 – $309.30 $261.46 – $314.25 $241.85 – $333.85
1 week Earnings ±8.2% ±$23.46 $264.39 – $311.31 $258.75 – $316.95 $238.57 – $337.13
2 weeks Earnings ±9.5% ±$27.32 $260.53 – $315.17 $254.12 – $321.59 $230.28 – $345.42
3 weeks Earnings ±10.6% ±$30.51 $257.34 – $318.36 $250.06 – $325.65 $223.69 – $352.01
1 month Earnings ±11.8% ±$33.88 $253.97 – $321.73 $245.80 – $329.91 $216.61 – $359.09
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. TPL reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±6.80%
Average actual move
4.92%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 4
Median IV change
-10.07%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026 ±7.97% -4.92% 0.62× —
August 07, 2025 ±6.90% -8.75% 1.27× —
May 08, 2025 ±7.76% -4.16% 0.54× 62.1% → 50.9%
February 20, 2025 ±4.58% +1.86% 0.41× 47.9% → 45.1%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →