TMC Moves

TMC the metals company Inc TMC 2.07 -0.24 -10.39%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $2.05

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±4.6% ±$0.09	$1.96 – $2.14	$1.94 – $2.16	$1.85 – $2.25
2 sessions	±6.4% ±$0.13	$1.92 – $2.18	$1.89 – $2.21	$1.77 – $2.33
3 sessions	±8.1% ±$0.17	$1.88 – $2.22	$1.85 – $2.25	$1.70 – $2.40
1 week	±10.3% ±$0.21	$1.84 – $2.26	$1.79 – $2.31	$1.60 – $2.50
2 weeks Earnings	±17.3% ±$0.36	$1.69 – $2.41	$1.61 – $2.49	$1.30 – $2.80
3 weeks Earnings	±20.4% ±$0.42	$1.63 – $2.47	$1.53 – $2.57	$1.17 – $2.93
1 month Earnings	±23.6% ±$0.48	$1.57 – $2.53	$1.45 – $2.65	$1.03 – $3.07

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. TMC reports in 6 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±9.53%

Average actual move

7.65%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 4

Median IV change

-8.88%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 14, 2026	±8.05%	-9.07%	1.13×	—
May 15, 2026	±7.71%	-5.08%	0.66×	—
March 27, 2026	±11.28%	-7.38%	0.65×	—
August 15, 2025	±11.09%	-9.06%	0.82×	127.8% → 116.4%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →