TKO Moves

TKO Group Holdings TKO 185.14 4.46 2.47%

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Expected move

November 02, 2026 close · $185.14

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.3% ±$2.44	$182.70 – $187.58	$182.21 – $188.07	$179.90 – $190.38
2 sessions	±1.8% ±$3.39	$181.75 – $188.53	$181.03 – $189.25	$177.83 – $192.45
3 sessions Earnings	±6.0% ±$11.20	$173.94 – $196.34	$171.37 – $198.91	$161.11 – $209.17
1 week Earnings	±6.4% ±$11.90	$173.24 – $197.04	$170.35 – $199.93	$160.11 – $210.17
2 weeks Earnings	±7.2% ±$13.24	$171.90 – $198.38	$168.77 – $201.51	$157.22 – $213.06
3 weeks Earnings	±7.8% ±$14.39	$170.75 – $199.53	$167.33 – $202.95	$154.93 – $215.35
1 month Earnings	±8.4% ±$15.61	$169.53 – $200.75	$165.77 – $204.51	$152.33 – $217.95

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. TKO reports in 3 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.07%

Average actual move

3.08%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 4

Median IV change

-22.64%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026	±6.01%	-1.55%	0.26×	47.7% → 35.6%
August 07, 2025	±6.55%	+3.30%	0.50×	52.5% → 42.1%
May 09, 2025	±6.07%	-5.50%	0.91×	—
November 07, 2024	±5.66%	-1.95%	0.34×	44.8% → 27.1%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →