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Target Corporation TGT 157.95 -5.15 -3.16%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $158.23
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.5% ±$2.29 $155.94 – $160.52 $155.48 – $160.98 $153.29 – $163.17
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$3.20 $155.03 – $161.43 $154.35 – $162.11 $151.33 – $165.13
3 sessions ±2.5% ±$4.02 $154.21 – $162.25 $153.44 – $163.02 $149.65 – $166.81
1 week ±3.2% ±$5.11 $153.12 – $163.34 $151.98 – $164.48 $147.33 – $169.13
2 weeks Earnings ±9.3% ±$14.75 $143.48 – $172.98 $140.02 – $176.44 $127.15 – $189.31
3 weeks Earnings ±9.9% ±$15.63 $142.60 – $173.86 $138.88 – $177.58 $125.38 – $191.08
1 month Earnings ±10.5% ±$16.60 $141.63 – $174.83 $137.63 – $178.83 $123.31 – $193.15
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. TGT reports in 9 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.61%
Average actual move
7.34%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 7
Median IV change
-41.43%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 19, 2026 ±7.03% +4.28% 0.61× 48.1% → 32.8%
May 20, 2026 ±7.84% -3.86% 0.49× —
March 03, 2026 ±9.41% +6.74% 0.72× —
August 20, 2025 ±9.70% -6.33% 0.65× 60.8% → 31.6%
May 21, 2025 ±8.94% -5.21% 0.58× 62.3% → 36.5%
March 04, 2025 ±8.76% -3.00% 0.34× 67.8% → 30.5%
November 20, 2024 ±8.61% -21.97% 2.55× 54.4% → 70.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →