TFPM Moves

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM 31.53 0.74 2.4%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $31.45

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.9% ±$0.61	$30.85 – $32.06	$30.73 – $32.18	$30.17 – $32.74
2 sessions	±2.7% ±$0.84	$30.62 – $32.29	$30.44 – $32.47	$29.65 – $33.26
3 sessions	±3.4% ±$1.05	$30.40 – $32.51	$30.20 – $32.71	$29.21 – $33.70
1 week	±4.3% ±$1.34	$30.12 – $32.79	$29.82 – $33.09	$28.60 – $34.31
2 weeks	±6.0% ±$1.88	$29.58 – $33.33	$29.13 – $33.78	$27.45 – $35.46
3 weeks	±7.4% ±$2.33	$29.13 – $33.78	$28.56 – $34.35	$26.54 – $36.37
1 month	±8.8% ±$2.77	$28.68 – $34.23	$27.99 – $34.92	$25.58 – $37.33

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.44%

Average actual move

7.47%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 07, 2025	±4.44%	+7.47%	1.68×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →