SERV Moves

Serve Robotics Inc SERV 2.32 -0.33 -12.45%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $2.63

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings	±11.9% ±$0.31	$2.31 – $2.94	$2.24 – $3.02	$1.94 – $3.31
2 sessions Earnings	±13.0% ±$0.34	$2.29 – $2.97	$2.20 – $3.05	$1.89 – $3.37
3 sessions Earnings	±14.0% ±$0.37	$2.26 – $3.00	$2.18 – $3.08	$1.84 – $3.42
1 week Earnings	±15.1% ±$0.40	$2.23 – $3.03	$2.14 – $3.12	$1.79 – $3.46
2 weeks Earnings	±17.2% ±$0.45	$2.18 – $3.08	$2.07 – $3.19	$1.68 – $3.58
3 weeks Earnings	±19.0% ±$0.50	$2.13 – $3.13	$2.01 – $3.25	$1.58 – $3.68
1 month Earnings	±20.8% ±$0.55	$2.08 – $3.18	$1.95 – $3.31	$1.48 – $3.78

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. SERV reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±11.82%

Average actual move

7.01%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 5

Median IV change

-16.66%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 07, 2026	±10.21%	-10.48%	1.03×	—
May 08, 2026	±9.85%	-3.52%	0.36×	104.0% → 89.0%
August 08, 2025	±12.28%	-1.13%	0.09×	122.8% → 99.6%
May 09, 2025	±12.58%	+13.72%	1.09×	127.0% → 105.8%
March 07, 2025	±14.20%	-6.19%	0.44×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →