SBAC Moves

SBA Communications Corp SBAC 195.48 10.79 5.84%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $195.47

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.8% ±$3.47	$191.99 – $198.94	$191.28 – $199.65	$187.98 – $202.95
2 sessions	±2.5% ±$4.84	$190.62 – $200.31	$189.58 – $201.35	$185.01 – $205.92
3 sessions	±3.1% ±$6.09	$189.37 – $201.56	$188.17 – $202.76	$182.47 – $208.46
1 week	±4.0% ±$7.76	$187.71 – $203.23	$185.99 – $204.95	$178.93 – $212.00
2 weeks	±5.6% ±$10.88	$184.58 – $206.35	$182.00 – $208.93	$172.24 – $218.69
3 weeks	±6.6% ±$12.90	$182.56 – $208.37	$179.42 – $211.51	$168.20 – $222.73
1 month	±7.4% ±$14.54	$180.92 – $210.01	$177.33 – $213.60	$164.64 – $226.29

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.51%

Average actual move

4.88%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Median IV change

-9.85%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 05, 2025	±4.51%	-4.88%	1.08×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →