Philip Morris International Inc PM 211.28 3.25 1.56%
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $211.02| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±1.2% ±$2.53 | $208.49 – $213.55 | $207.98 – $214.06 | $205.60 – $216.44 |
| 2 sessions | ±1.7% ±$3.52 | $207.50 – $214.54 | $206.76 – $215.28 | $203.42 – $218.62 |
| 3 sessions | ±2.1% ±$4.37 | $206.65 – $215.39 | $205.81 – $216.23 | $201.71 – $220.33 |
| 1 week | ±2.6% ±$5.49 | $205.53 – $216.51 | $204.31 – $217.73 | $199.33 – $222.71 |
| 2 weeks | ±3.6% ±$7.55 | $203.47 – $218.57 | $201.67 – $220.37 | $194.90 – $227.14 |
| 3 weeks | ±4.4% ±$9.22 | $201.80 – $220.24 | $199.56 – $222.48 | $191.54 – $230.50 |
| 1 month | ±5.5% ±$11.61 | $199.41 – $222.63 | $196.54 – $225.50 | $186.44 – $235.60 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±5.03%
Average actual move
4.47%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 6
Median IV change
-23.82%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21, 2026 | ±4.70% | -1.22% | 0.26× | 37.6% → 29.2% |
| July 22, 2026 | ±5.29% | +3.33% | 0.63× | 44.2% → 33.7% |
| February 06, 2026 | ±5.36% | +0.45% | 0.08× | — |
| July 22, 2025 | ±4.85% | -8.43% | 1.74× | — |
| April 23, 2025 | ±5.70% | +2.44% | 0.43× | 41.2% → 26.8% |
| February 06, 2025 | ±4.26% | +10.95% | 2.57× | — |