Open
⌘K
Sign in Sign up

PDD Holdings Inc PDD 83.95 1.8 2.19%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $83.84
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.6% ±$1.37 $82.47 – $85.21 $82.20 – $85.48 $80.90 – $86.78
2 sessions ±2.3% ±$1.90 $81.94 – $85.74 $81.53 – $86.15 $79.73 – $87.95
3 sessions ±2.9% ±$2.40 $81.44 – $86.24 $80.97 – $86.71 $78.73 – $88.95
1 week ±3.6% ±$3.05 $80.79 – $86.89 $80.11 – $87.57 $77.34 – $90.34
2 weeks Earnings ±7.5% ±$6.32 $77.52 – $90.16 $76.03 – $91.65 $70.51 – $97.17
3 weeks Earnings ±8.4% ±$7.08 $76.76 – $90.92 $75.08 – $92.60 $68.96 – $98.72
1 month Earnings ±9.4% ±$7.87 $75.97 – $91.71 $74.07 – $93.61 $67.29 – $100.39
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. PDD reports in 8 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.12%
Average actual move
6.51%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 7
Median IV change
-32.20%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 24, 2026 ±7.92% -1.48% 0.19× 56.2% → 37.0%
May 27, 2026 ±6.73% -10.38% 1.54× —
March 25, 2026 ±7.76% +4.61% 0.59× —
August 25, 2025 ±7.91% +0.87% 0.11× 54.7% → 36.4%
May 27, 2025 ±8.30% -13.64% 1.64× 59.6% → 63.5%
March 20, 2025 ±9.09% +3.97% 0.44× 67.1% → 45.5%
November 21, 2024 ±9.12% -10.64% 1.17× 65.7% → 46.0%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →