PATH Moves

UiPath PATH 13.01 -0.5 -3.7%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $12.90

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.5% ±$0.32	$12.58 – $13.22	$12.52 – $13.28	$12.22 – $13.58
2 sessions	±3.4% ±$0.44	$12.46 – $13.34	$12.37 – $13.43	$11.95 – $13.85
3 sessions	±4.3% ±$0.55	$12.35 – $13.45	$12.24 – $13.56	$11.72 – $14.08
1 week	±5.5% ±$0.70	$12.20 – $13.60	$12.04 – $13.76	$11.40 – $14.40
2 weeks	±7.7% ±$0.99	$11.91 – $13.89	$11.68 – $14.12	$10.79 – $15.01
3 weeks	±9.5% ±$1.22	$11.68 – $14.12	$11.38 – $14.42	$10.32 – $15.48
1 month Earnings	±17.4% ±$2.25	$10.65 – $15.15	$10.11 – $15.69	$8.17 – $17.63

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. PATH reports in 19 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±15.27%

Average actual move

7.21%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 6

Median IV change

-48.87%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
September 04, 2026	±14.96%	-16.63%	1.11×	—
May 29, 2026	±18.26%	+1.21%	0.07×	—
September 05, 2025	±12.26%	+5.90%	0.48×	84.2% → 43.1%
May 30, 2025	±13.33%	+2.86%	0.21×	97.7% → 46.2%
March 13, 2025	±16.91%	-15.72%	0.93×	120.3% → 79.6%
December 06, 2024	±15.92%	-0.94%	0.06×	110.2% → 56.3%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →