PANW Moves

Palo Alto Networks PANW 314.67 -33.37 -9.59% Regime: Trend Down (95%)

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $316.55

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.7% ±$8.42	$308.13 – $324.97	$306.42 – $326.68	$298.47 – $334.62
2 sessions	±3.7% ±$11.71	$304.84 – $328.26	$302.33 – $330.76	$291.29 – $341.81
3 sessions	±4.7% ±$14.75	$301.80 – $331.30	$298.95 – $334.15	$285.11 – $347.98
1 week	±5.9% ±$18.77	$297.78 – $335.32	$293.60 – $339.50	$276.60 – $356.50
2 weeks Earnings	±13.6% ±$43.11	$273.43 – $359.66	$263.27 – $369.82	$225.64 – $407.46
3 weeks Earnings	±14.9% ±$47.29	$269.26 – $363.84	$257.99 – $375.11	$217.12 – $415.98
1 month Earnings	±16.4% ±$51.75	$264.79 – $368.30	$252.32 – $380.78	$207.72 – $425.38

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. PANW reports in 10 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±8.95%

Average actual move

4.49%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 6

Median IV change

-38.13%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
September 02, 2026	±9.67%	-9.28%	0.96×	—
June 03, 2026	±12.76%	-5.64%	0.44×	91.8% → 61.6%
August 19, 2025	±8.02%	+3.06%	0.38×	63.1% → 35.7%
May 21, 2025	±7.51%	-6.80%	0.91×	50.9% → 35.4%
February 14, 2025	±7.70%	-0.92%	0.12×	57.1% → 29.5%
November 21, 2024	±8.02%	+1.22%	0.15×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →