OTEX Moves

Open Text Corp OTEX 26.12 -0.47 -1.77%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $26.21

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.3% ±$0.61	$25.60 – $26.82	$25.48 – $26.94	$24.91 – $27.51
2 sessions	±3.2% ±$0.84	$25.37 – $27.05	$25.19 – $27.23	$24.40 – $28.02
3 sessions	±4.0% ±$1.06	$25.15 – $27.27	$24.95 – $27.47	$23.96 – $28.46
1 week	±5.1% ±$1.34	$24.87 – $27.55	$24.56 – $27.86	$23.34 – $29.08
2 weeks	±7.2% ±$1.89	$24.32 – $28.10	$23.87 – $28.55	$22.18 – $30.24
3 weeks	±8.3% ±$2.17	$24.04 – $28.38	$23.51 – $28.91	$21.62 – $30.80
1 month	±9.3% ±$2.42	$23.79 – $28.63	$23.18 – $29.24	$21.07 – $31.35

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±7.55%

Average actual move

9.84%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Median IV change

-34.04%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 08, 2025	±7.55%	+9.84%	1.30×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →