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Novartis AG NVS 161.93 -3.05 -1.85%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $161.97
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.5% ±$2.40 $159.57 – $164.37 $159.10 – $164.84 $156.84 – $167.10
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$3.32 $158.65 – $165.29 $157.94 – $166.00 $154.79 – $169.15
3 sessions ±2.6% ±$4.18 $157.79 – $166.15 $156.98 – $166.96 $153.06 – $170.88
1 week ±3.3% ±$5.33 $156.64 – $167.30 $155.46 – $168.48 $150.63 – $173.31
2 weeks ±4.6% ±$7.47 $154.50 – $169.44 $152.74 – $171.20 $146.03 – $177.91
3 weeks ±5.3% ±$8.65 $153.32 – $170.62 $151.22 – $172.72 $143.68 – $180.26
1 month ±6.0% ±$9.72 $152.25 – $171.69 $149.84 – $174.10 $141.37 – $182.57
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±3.15%
Average actual move
3.25%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 1
Median IV change
-16.18%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
July 17, 2025 ±3.15% -3.25% 1.03× 22.4% → 19.0%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →