NVO Moves

Novo-Nordisk A/S NVO 40.3 -1.88 -4.46%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $40.25

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.0% ±$0.78	$39.47 – $41.03	$39.31 – $41.19	$38.57 – $41.93
2 sessions	±2.4% ±$0.98	$39.27 – $41.23	$39.06 – $41.44	$38.13 – $42.37
3 sessions	±3.0% ±$1.19	$39.06 – $41.44	$38.83 – $41.67	$37.71 – $42.79
1 week	±3.6% ±$1.46	$38.79 – $41.71	$38.46 – $42.04	$37.13 – $43.37
2 weeks	±5.3% ±$2.13	$38.12 – $42.38	$37.62 – $42.88	$35.71 – $44.79
3 weeks	±6.5% ±$2.62	$37.63 – $42.87	$37.00 – $43.50	$34.72 – $45.78
1 month	±7.2% ±$2.90	$37.35 – $43.15	$36.63 – $43.87	$34.10 – $46.40

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.25%

Average actual move

2.84%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 6

Median IV change

-20.79%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
November 04, 2026	±6.02%	+4.95%	0.82×	47.4% → 37.4%
August 05, 2026	±3.91%	+0.56%	0.14×	50.6% → 35.1%
May 06, 2026	±7.24%	+1.98%	0.27×	55.3% → 44.0%
August 06, 2025	±5.98%	-3.90%	0.65×	51.7% → 46.3%
May 07, 2025	±7.09%	+1.90%	0.27×	61.5% → 53.1%
February 05, 2025	±7.25%	+3.76%	0.52×	52.8% → 36.2%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →