Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH 17.76 -0.84 -4.52%
Expected move
November 05, 2026 close · $17.64| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±2.5% ±$0.44 | $17.20 – $18.08 | $17.11 – $18.17 | $16.69 – $18.59 |
| 2 sessions | ±3.5% ±$0.61 | $17.03 – $18.25 | $16.90 – $18.38 | $16.32 – $18.96 |
| 3 sessions | ±4.4% ±$0.77 | $16.87 – $18.41 | $16.72 – $18.56 | $15.99 – $19.29 |
| 1 week | ±5.6% ±$0.98 | $16.66 – $18.62 | $16.44 – $18.84 | $15.55 – $19.73 |
| 2 weeks | ±7.6% ±$1.34 | $16.30 – $18.98 | $15.98 – $19.30 | $14.78 – $20.50 |
| 3 weeks | ±9.5% ±$1.67 | $15.97 – $19.31 | $15.56 – $19.72 | $14.10 – $21.18 |
| 1 month | ±10.1% ±$1.77 | $15.87 – $19.41 | $15.43 – $19.85 | $13.88 – $21.40 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±8.14%
Average actual move
9.23%
Beyond the implied move
5 / 7
Median IV change
-20.05%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2026 | ±7.63% | +13.45% | 1.76× | — |
| July 30, 2026 | ±7.33% | -9.78% | 1.34× | — |
| May 04, 2026 | ±9.46% | -8.56% | 0.90× | 72.0% → 61.3% |
| March 02, 2026 | ±10.23% | -10.53% | 1.03× | — |
| July 31, 2025 | ±7.37% | +9.23% | 1.25× | 57.5% → 44.2% |
| April 30, 2025 | ±7.19% | -7.77% | 1.08× | 62.2% → 51.5% |
| February 27, 2025 | ±7.80% | -5.31% | 0.68× | 66.2% → 51.0% |