MPLX Moves

MPLX LP MPLX 56.55 0.3 0.53%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $56.55

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.1% ±$0.62	$55.93 – $57.17	$55.81 – $57.29	$55.23 – $57.87
2 sessions	±1.5% ±$0.86	$55.69 – $57.41	$55.51 – $57.59	$54.70 – $58.40
3 sessions	±1.9% ±$1.08	$55.47 – $57.63	$55.26 – $57.84	$54.24 – $58.86
1 week	±2.4% ±$1.37	$55.18 – $57.92	$54.86 – $58.24	$53.62 – $59.48
2 weeks	±3.4% ±$1.93	$54.62 – $58.48	$54.16 – $58.94	$52.43 – $60.67
3 weeks	±4.0% ±$2.26	$54.29 – $58.81	$53.75 – $59.35	$51.78 – $61.32
1 month	±4.5% ±$2.55	$54.00 – $59.10	$53.37 – $59.73	$51.14 – $61.96

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±5.29%

Average actual move

2.60%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 3

Median IV change

-16.79%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 05, 2026	±4.99%	-2.64%	0.53×	—
August 05, 2025	±6.50%	-3.51%	0.54×	—
May 06, 2025	±4.39%	-1.66%	0.38×	30.6% → 24.3%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →