MPAA Moves

Motorcar Parts of America MPAA 10.4 0.09 0.87%

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Expected move

November 02, 2026 close · $10.38

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±3.6% ±$0.38	$10.00 – $10.75	$9.93 – $10.82	$9.58 – $11.17
2 sessions	±5.0% ±$0.52	$9.86 – $10.89	$9.75 – $11.00	$9.26 – $11.49
3 sessions	±6.3% ±$0.65	$9.72 – $11.03	$9.60 – $11.15	$8.99 – $11.76
1 week	±8.0% ±$0.82	$9.55 – $11.20	$9.36 – $11.39	$8.61 – $12.14
2 weeks	±11.2% ±$1.16	$9.21 – $11.54	$8.94 – $11.81	$7.89 – $12.86
3 weeks	±13.9% ±$1.45	$8.93 – $11.82	$8.58 – $12.17	$7.33 – $13.42
1 month	±16.5% ±$1.71	$8.66 – $12.09	$8.23 – $12.52	$6.74 – $14.01

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. MPAA reports in 9 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±18.46%

Average actual move

18.46%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
June 09, 2025	±18.46%	-18.46%	1.00×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →