MAR Moves

Marriott International Class A Common MAR 399.3 -0.35 -0.09%

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Expected move

October 30, 2026 close · $399.05

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings	±3.2% ±$12.73	$386.32 – $411.78	$383.09 – $415.01	$371.28 – $426.82
2 sessions Earnings	±3.5% ±$14.13	$384.92 – $413.18	$381.45 – $416.65	$368.44 – $429.66
3 sessions Earnings	±3.9% ±$15.44	$383.61 – $414.49	$380.06 – $418.04	$365.93 – $432.17
1 week Earnings	±4.3% ±$17.04	$382.01 – $416.09	$377.86 – $420.24	$363.18 – $434.92
2 weeks Earnings	±5.1% ±$20.19	$378.86 – $419.24	$374.11 – $423.99	$356.47 – $441.63
3 weeks Earnings	±5.7% ±$22.79	$376.26 – $421.84	$370.84 – $427.26	$351.16 – $446.94
1 month Earnings	±6.4% ±$25.46	$373.59 – $424.51	$367.45 – $430.65	$345.54 – $452.56

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. MAR reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.51%

Average actual move

3.70%

Beyond the implied move

3 / 7

Median IV change

-25.84%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 03, 2026	±4.92%	-6.97%	1.42×	—
May 06, 2026	±4.70%	+1.28%	0.27×	38.4% → 27.9%
February 10, 2026	±4.65%	+8.50%	1.83×	—
August 05, 2025	±4.05%	+0.23%	0.06×	34.2% → 24.0%
May 06, 2025	±4.65%	+1.90%	0.41×	41.5% → 31.4%
February 11, 2025	±3.96%	-5.40%	1.37×	—
November 04, 2024	±4.62%	-1.59%	0.34×	33.7% → 26.6%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →