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Macy's Inc M 24.19 -1.51 -5.88%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $24.19
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.1% ±$0.51 $23.68 – $24.70 $23.58 – $24.80 $23.10 – $25.28
2 sessions ±2.9% ±$0.71 $23.48 – $24.90 $23.33 – $25.05 $22.66 – $25.72
3 sessions ±3.7% ±$0.89 $23.30 – $25.08 $23.13 – $25.25 $22.29 – $26.09
1 week ±4.7% ±$1.13 $23.06 – $25.32 $22.80 – $25.58 $21.78 – $26.60
2 weeks ±6.6% ±$1.59 $22.60 – $25.78 $22.22 – $26.16 $20.80 – $27.58
3 weeks ±8.1% ±$1.97 $22.22 – $26.16 $21.74 – $26.64 $20.03 – $28.35
1 month Earnings ±11.6% ±$2.80 $21.39 – $26.99 $20.72 – $27.66 $18.30 – $30.08
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. M reports in 18 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±9.37%
Average actual move
4.65%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 7
Median IV change
-29.37%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
September 10, 2026 ±8.14% -4.70% 0.58× —
June 03, 2026 ±9.07% +0.60% 0.07× —
March 18, 2026 ±11.73% +4.73% 0.40× —
September 03, 2025 ±8.45% +20.68% 2.45× —
May 28, 2025 ±8.89% -0.33% 0.04× —
March 06, 2025 ±9.50% -0.68% 0.07× —
December 11, 2024 ±9.78% -0.84% 0.09× 57.4% → 40.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →