IT Moves

Gartner IT 198.07 -9.12 -4.4%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $195.84

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.3% ±$4.48	$191.35 – $200.32	$190.45 – $201.22	$186.22 – $205.45
2 sessions	±3.2% ±$6.22	$189.61 – $202.06	$188.28 – $203.40	$182.38 – $209.29
3 sessions	±4.0% ±$7.85	$187.98 – $203.69	$186.47 – $205.20	$179.11 – $212.56
1 week	±5.1% ±$9.98	$185.85 – $205.82	$183.64 – $208.04	$174.57 – $217.10
2 weeks	±7.2% ±$14.00	$181.83 – $209.84	$178.52 – $213.15	$165.95 – $225.72
3 weeks	±8.6% ±$16.82	$179.01 – $212.66	$174.92 – $216.75	$160.29 – $231.38
1 month	±10.0% ±$19.52	$176.31 – $215.36	$171.45 – $220.22	$154.44 – $237.24

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±9.36%

Average actual move

10.05%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 3

Median IV change

-35.63%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 05, 2026	±13.10%	+1.21%	0.09×	92.7% → 59.7%
August 05, 2025	±7.29%	-27.55%	3.78×	—
May 06, 2025	±7.68%	+1.39%	0.18×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →