HQY Moves

HealthEquity HQY 103.46 -5.38 -4.94%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $103.46

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.0% ±$2.07	$101.39 – $105.53	$100.97 – $105.95	$99.01 – $107.91
2 sessions	±2.8% ±$2.89	$100.57 – $106.35	$99.96 – $106.96	$97.24 – $109.68
3 sessions	±3.5% ±$3.63	$99.83 – $107.09	$99.13 – $107.79	$95.73 – $111.19
1 week	±4.5% ±$4.61	$98.85 – $108.07	$97.82 – $109.10	$93.63 – $113.29
2 weeks	±6.3% ±$6.48	$96.98 – $109.94	$95.45 – $111.47	$89.65 – $117.27
3 weeks	±7.8% ±$8.02	$95.44 – $111.48	$93.49 – $113.43	$86.51 – $120.41
1 month	±9.2% ±$9.55	$93.91 – $113.01	$91.54 – $115.38	$83.21 – $123.71

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. HQY reports in 18 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±8.45%

Average actual move

11.31%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 2

Median IV change

-42.23%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
March 19, 2025	±7.60%	-17.07%	2.25×	—
December 10, 2024	±9.31%	-5.55%	0.60×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →