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Garmin Ltd GRMN 289.15 17.71 6.52%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $289.17
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.3% ±$3.79 $285.38 – $292.96 $284.60 – $293.74 $281.01 – $297.32
2 sessions ±1.8% ±$5.29 $283.88 – $294.46 $282.78 – $295.56 $277.77 – $300.56
3 sessions ±2.3% ±$6.65 $282.52 – $295.82 $281.24 – $297.09 $275.00 – $303.34
1 week ±2.9% ±$8.44 $280.72 – $297.61 $278.82 – $299.52 $271.15 – $307.18
2 weeks ±4.1% ±$11.85 $277.31 – $301.02 $274.51 – $303.83 $263.87 – $314.47
3 weeks ±5.1% ±$14.72 $274.45 – $303.89 $270.86 – $307.47 $258.05 – $320.28
1 month ±6.1% ±$17.58 $271.59 – $306.75 $267.25 – $311.09 $251.92 – $326.41
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.65%
Average actual move
11.04%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 2
Median IV change
-38.78%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
February 18, 2026 ±8.16% +9.44% 1.16× —
February 19, 2025 ±9.15% +12.64% 1.38× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →