GPN Moves

Global Payments GPN 94.98 -1.11 -1.16%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $96.87

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.7% ±$1.63	$95.24 – $98.50	$94.91 – $98.83	$93.37 – $100.37
2 sessions	±2.3% ±$2.27	$94.60 – $99.14	$94.12 – $99.62	$91.98 – $101.76
3 sessions	±3.0% ±$2.86	$94.01 – $99.73	$93.46 – $100.28	$90.79 – $102.95
1 week	±3.8% ±$3.63	$93.24 – $100.50	$92.42 – $101.32	$89.13 – $104.61
2 weeks	±5.3% ±$5.10	$91.77 – $101.97	$90.56 – $103.18	$85.99 – $107.75
3 weeks	±6.5% ±$6.32	$90.55 – $103.19	$89.02 – $104.72	$83.53 – $110.21
1 month	±7.8% ±$7.52	$89.35 – $104.39	$87.48 – $106.26	$80.93 – $112.81

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±8.77%

Average actual move

6.03%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 5

Median IV change

-37.78%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 06, 2026	±10.36%	+0.23%	0.02×	77.5% → 47.1%
February 18, 2026	±8.99%	+16.47%	1.83×	—
August 06, 2025	±8.42%	+9.09%	1.08×	62.2% → 39.5%
May 06, 2025	±7.70%	+0.04%	0.00×	55.1% → 37.7%
February 13, 2025	±8.36%	-4.32%	0.52×	65.8% → 33.0%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →