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Gold GOLD 41.43 2.31 5.9%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $41.53
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings ±8.1% ±$3.37 $38.17 – $44.90 $37.32 – $45.75 $34.20 – $48.87
2 sessions Earnings ±8.8% ±$3.65 $37.89 – $45.18 $37.00 – $46.07 $33.64 – $49.43
3 sessions Earnings ±9.4% ±$3.91 $37.63 – $45.44 $36.74 – $46.33 $33.17 – $49.90
1 week Earnings ±10.0% ±$4.17 $37.37 – $45.70 $36.36 – $46.71 $32.78 – $50.29
2 weeks Earnings ±11.3% ±$4.68 $36.86 – $46.21 $35.76 – $47.31 $31.67 – $51.40
3 weeks Earnings ±12.3% ±$5.11 $36.43 – $46.64 $35.21 – $47.86 $30.80 – $52.27
1 month Earnings ±13.4% ±$5.57 $35.97 – $47.10 $34.62 – $48.45 $29.83 – $53.24
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. GOLD reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±13.28%
Average actual move
0.95%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 1
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026 ±13.28% +0.95% 0.07× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →